2025 Business Predictions: Barry Jackson, Head of North at BGF
It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead.
It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years.
Here we speak to Barry Jackson, Head of North at BGF, the growth capital investors.
An uncertain economic backdrop has created challenging market conditions in 2024 that will undoubtedly stretch into 2025. However, despite the pressures being felt across the region, it’s encouraging to see that businesses with ambitious management teams and robust growth plans have still been able to grow, raise funding, or execute M&A in the last 12 months.
We anticipate this trend to continue in 2025. While the headwinds remain, those Yorkshire businesses that display resilience and ingenuity will find ways to get deals done in 2025 and reach their growth targets. This also goes beyond the Yorkshire borders, with potential across the North. The North West and the North East have also continued to be active on the deals front in the last 12 months. Combined, they will strengthen the prospects of the wider Northern region.
What is encouraging to see is the breadth of Yorkshire deals being executed – not just in key locations, such as Leeds, but across North, South and East Yorkshire. Our portfolio certainly reflects this spread of activity.
What’s particularly pleasing is how active the region’s tech businesses are – from an acquisition perspective, as well as the growth and levels of innovation being achieved. Unsurprisingly, an increasing number of businesses are also using technology to scale. This is a trend that will only accelerate in the coming 12 months and beyond, as companies look to push boundaries and seek operational efficiencies.
This is particularly pertinent when you take into consideration the raft of tax rises announced in October by the new Labour government, including National Insurance Contribution (NIC) increases. While for some businesses, these changes may prompt a renewed focus on ways to improve productivity through investment in tech/AI and automation; for others, the tax rises represent a significant challenge that will need to be navigated in 2025.
While regional companies have had to contend with ongoing pressures in 2024, many have shown a huge amount of tenacity and ambition, digging deep to create long-term value in their business. That value has been realised not just through M&A activity, but as a result of organic growth and a desire to build national and international brands that are firmly rooted in Yorkshire. In the coming 12 months, notwithstanding economic pressures, we expect good businesses to continue to thrive.
Government gives green light to Equinor CO2 storage scheme
Two of Equinor’s partnership projects have been approved by the Government and will become a reality marking a major milestone in the UK’s £4billion Carbon Capture and Storage plans.
The announcement means the country’s first carbon storage facility has been given the go-ahead to capture millions of tonnes of CO2 and store it under the North Sea, thereby helping to clean up some of Europe’s biggest carbon producing areas.
The North Sea is thought to be an ideal geological location for carbon capture, where disused oil and gas aquifers will be used to store CO2 emissions from heavy industries.
The Hull & Humber Chamber of Commerce has been a strong backer of Equinor’s plans and has supported their efforts in lobbying the Government to get the schemes in Teeside and the Humber approved. Chamber Chief Exec Dr Ian Kelly said: “This is great news for the Humber and for Teeside as well. When we hosted the then Shadow Energy Secretary Ed Miliband at the Chamber in Hull we impressed upon him the urgency of bringing this scheme to the fore if the UK is to meet its 2050 net zero targets.”
Now the Energy Secretary in the new Government, Ed Miliband said: “This investment launches a new era for clean energy in Britain – boosting energy security, backing industries, and supporting thousands of highly skilled jobs in Teesside and the North East.
“This is the Government’s mission to make the UK a clean energy superpower in action- replacing Britain’s energy insecurity with homegrown clean power that rebuilds the strength of our industrial heartlands.”
Richard Royal, Head of Public Affairs & Communications for Equinor, said: “This is fantastic news and a very important step for the low carbon energy industry, establishing the very first carbon capture and storage projects in the UK. Whilst this announcement relates primarily to Teesside, it also helps to unlock and speed up similar opportunities in the Humber.
“We now have the green light to further develop and consult on engineering plans for the onshore CO2 pipeline from Easington to Drax, in advance of a DCO submission.
“Also, with the first Track-1 projects ‘off the blocks’, it clears the way for the progression of Track-1 Expansion and Track 2 projects in the Humber, which have been in limbo for nearly two years.”
Daniel joins Leeds-based property regeneration consultancy
Property regeneration consultants AspinallVerdi has named Daniel Starkey as an associate director at its Leeds HQ.
Daniel joins the expanding consultancy following more than five years with planning, masterplanning and architecture consultants Spawforths, where he became a senior associate specialising in strategic planning services in the land promotion team.
Before that the chartered town planner and chartered surveyor was a strategic land manager with Barratt Developments, a planner at Harron Homes, and a planning assistant with Craven District Council.
Led by chairman Atam Verdi and MD Ben Aspinall, the AspinallVerdi team has a widening client base including North Yorkshire Council, Kirklees Council, Potter Space, Sky-House, Cheyne Capital and others.
Ben said: “We have grown our client base both in Yorkshire and nationally in recent years and Daniel’s strategic appointment will further enhance our ability to provide our valued clients in the public and private sectors with comprehensive and high-quality property advice.”
Imported Chinese excavators could face 83% anti-dumping cost
A new anti-dumping measure of up to 83.5% could be applied to imports of excavators from China to the UK, a measure said to be worth up to £3.4 million a year to UK manufacturers.
Trade Remedies Authority Chief Exec Oliver Griffiths said excavator production was an important component of the UK’s Advanced Manufacturing sector, and UK producers were being undercut significantly by dumped imports from China.”
The TRA opened its investigation in response to an application from JCB, a Staffordshire-based multinational business. The TRA estimated that during the period of investigation, UK excavator producers employed around 900 workers and had a turnover of around £500 million.
Around 180,000 tonnes of excavators were sold in the UK during the period of investigation, with the UK industry supplying between 10-25% of this volume. The UK industry’s market share decreased by 11% over the injury period.
The TRA found that Chinese exporters were able to use reduced production costs to price their exports below UK competitors who did not benefit from an artificially-low cost base, undercutting UK prices by more than 23%.
The TRA also found Chinese excavators had been subsidised, and that their importation to the UK has caused injury to the UK’s excavator industry.
As a result, the TRA has made an initial recommendation to impose a countervailing duty on imported Chinese excavators weighing 11 tonnes or more, but less than 80 tonnes. The duty would range from 0% to 2.93% and would be in addition to the anti-dumping duty already proposed.
Disappointing shrink for UK economy
The UK’s economy shrunk unexpectedly in October.
According to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), GDP (gross domestic product), a key measure of economy growth, declined by 0.1% month on month – below expectations of 0.1% growth.
This follows a fall of 0.1% in September.
It reflects dwindling and declining output across all three key sectors, with production output falling by 0.6% in October, due to drops in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying output.
Construction output, meanwhile, dipped by 0.4% in October and services output showed no growth.
Ben Jones, Lead Economist, CBI, said: “Following these disappointing figures, businesses will be glad to see the end of 2024. Nevertheless, firms remain hopeful that things will improve in the New Year.
“It may take a few more months for firms to work through the impact of the sharp increase in employment taxes outlined in the Budget and adjust their hiring and investment plans accordingly. But businesses can probably still look forward to a steady, if unspectacular, economic recovery next year as the impact of the inflation shock fades and interest rates come down further.
“The Government can support business confidence by accelerating measures that could restore some headroom for investment. These include delivering flexibility to the Apprenticeship Levy, preparing a faster timetable to reform business rates and working in full partnership with boardrooms to develop a long-term modern industrial strategy that can provide the stability and certainty needed to unlock innovation, investment and grow the economy.”
Steelmaker gives full-time roles to almost 40 apprentices
British Steel has given full-time positions to almost 40 apprentices who’ve completed their training.
The company’s new employees, who specialise in mechanical, fabrication and welding, or electrical engineering, received the news after completing a three-year apprenticeship with the business.
23 of the apprentices are based at our headquarters in Scunthorpe, with 14 more at our operations in Teesside and Skinningrove.
Operations Director Matt Stockwell, said: “I congratulate the apprentices for their achievements and hard work during the last three years. We welcome them into their permanent positions. I am sure they will be major assets to our business, and I wish them every success.”
Heather Bateman, Early Careers Advisor, added: “It is fantastic to see so many young people entering the business and completing their apprenticeships.
“These apprentices are the future of our business, and it is wonderful to see them achieve their goals. We look forward to seeing how their careers develop as they progress with British Steel. They all have a superb opportunity.”
Council commits to one of its largest-ever property schemes
North East Lincolnshire Council has committed to continuing with one of the largest property schemes it has ever undertaken – the Freshney Place leisure scheme and associated new food hall and complementary market.
Council leader Philip Jackson said the council’s decision to bring forward and support the project would transform the centre of Grimsby.
The leisure scheme will occupy the western end of Freshney Place, the area that is currently the Top Town Market Hall, and some units on the Bullring, which will provide a new offering for the people and businesses in Grimsby town centre.
A pre-let agreement is in place with Parkway Cinema to bring a five-screen cinema to complement its offering at Cleethorpes.
Richard Parkes, owner of Parkway Cinema, said: “We’ve long discussed options for bringing a cinema to Grimsby, and reinventing Freshney Place is precisely the right approach. Town centres are not just about shopping – that doesn’t work any more. We need to provide more reasons to visit and offer more things to do at more times during the day, and that’s just what we’ve signed up for – to bring that to Grimsby.
“We’ll be a living, breathing presence right in the heart of the town, with a new cinema open to and accessible to everyone alongside a new market hall and food outlets. It’s just part of something that will improve the whole town centre for a new generation, alongside the youth zone and other areas of the town like St James Square and the Riverhead. There’s a lot going on, and we can’t wait to be part of it.”
The development also includes plans for a new, vibrant food hall together with an attached complementary market on the area of the former BHS building.
Four additional new leisure, food and beverage, or retail opportunities, including a larger unit to-let are also in the scheme footprint, alongside four refurbished units within Freshney Place, with the return of Starbucks already agreed, and discussions under way with a leading food outlet.
Work is expected to start on site early in the new year.
Grimsby-based card payment solutions provider sold to US company
Card Industry Professionals – the Grimsby-based card payment solutions provider – has been acquired by Shift4, a US-based company that is a global leader in payments and commerce-enabling technology, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
The deal provides an exit for Mercia Ventures, which backed the company in 2022 using funding from the first Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund (NPIF) and the Midlands Engine Investment Fund (MEIF). It achieved a 2x return on investment.
Card Industry Professionals provides card terminals, point of sale and online payment solutions to thousands of SMEs such as retailers, hair salons and hospitality venues.
The business was founded in 2017 by award-winning young entrepreneur Ciaran Savage, who was joined by his mother, Lyn Savage, as Operations Director, and John Selby as Sales Director, both of whom have many years of experience in the UK payments industry.
The company now employs a 20-strong team in Grimsby, has a nationwide network of over 150 sales agents and processes over £60m worth of transactions per month.
Ciaran Savage, Founder and Managing Director, said: “We are excited to be joining the Shift4 family. We are committed to upholding the company values and best-in-class service customers have come to expect from us and are confident that this acquisition will allow us to improve upon those service levels, while offering even more value in the form of new benefits, incentives and product offerings.”
Maurice Disasi of Mercia Ventures added: “We’re delighted to have supported CIP on its growth journey. Ciaran and the team have built a business with first-class customer support and Shift4 now has the benefit of adding a strong and well-respected team here in the UK as part of their global operations. We wish the team continued success.”
Cerelo in Leeds provided corporate finance advice to Mercia and Card Industry Professionals, Marshall & Co Chartered Accountants in Hull provided financial due diligence support, with Wilkin Chapman in Grimsby providing all legal support and guidance.
Lincoln company gets £250k funding to expand into US
Lincoln-based Panoramix has secured a £250,000 follow on debt funding package to implement a comprehensive marketing strategy aimed at expanding its client base, particularly in the US, where it has already seen strong demand.
The funding comes through the Midlands Engine Investment Fund II though Maven Capital Partners, appointed Fund Manager for East and South East Midlands.
Panoramix is a specialist intellectual property law firm delivering legal services to both UK and overseas businesses,
Founded in 2019 by IP law specialist Kevin Hanson, Panoramix offers a flexible, attorney-led service without the billable hours model commonly used across the industry. Instead, the business offers fixed fees based on task complexity and value, allowing clients to benefit from transparent and efficient services.
Panoramix supports a range of clients from start-ups and SMEs to multinational corporations across various sectors, including technology, healthcare, retail, and manufacturing. It is also one of the few UK-based IP firms authorised to conduct US trademark work, holding direct practice rights with the US Patent and Trademark Office, which enables it to provide UK clients with cost-effective US IP support.
The funding will also enable the company to recruit additional staff, including a client relationship manager, an administrative support role, and a part-qualified patent attorney to support its growing operations.
Kevin Hanson, founder of Panoramix, said: “The support from Maven and the Midlands Engine Investment Fund I in 2022 was critical in enabling us to establish our business in the East Midlands and grow our client base nationally. With further funding through Midlands Engine Investment Fund II, we intend to double our headcount and turnover within the next 24 months. This will involve development of new service offerings and expansion into new international markets. The future is looking very bright as we continue to revolutionise the IP legal services industry.”
First phase of refurbishment completes at Town Centre House in Leeds
Property development and investment company Town Centre Securities PLC (TCS) has completed the first phase of its refurbishment of Town Centre House, located in the heart of Leeds’ Arena Quarter.
TCS has undertaken a full refurbishment of the ground and first floors, creating a modern and welcoming arrival experience within reception, whilst also creating a new ground floor workspace following the conversion of upper levels of the adjoining Pret A Manger.
Town Centre House now offers a contemporary, sustainable, and tenant-focused workspace, complemented by enhanced features to support productivity and work-life balance designed to meet the needs of today’s dynamic businesses.
The works allow Town Centre Securities to offer tenants a variety of space ranging from 1,910 – 6,502 sq ft alongside a variety of lease options varying from fully fitted solutions to traditional leasing options.
Alongside the revamped workspace, TCS has unveiled the building’s refreshed branding, reflecting the company’s vision for its forward-thinking developments, emphasising quality, innovation, and sustainability.
Renovation highlights include Sustainability and Innovation – Town Centre House features an EPC A rating and BREEAM ‘Excellent’ certification, with all-electric systems, energy-efficient lighting, and access to electric vehicle charging facilities.
In addition to serving as the head office for Town Centre Securities PLC, Town Centre House is already home to a variety of occupiers, including Gleeds and PureGym.
Matthew Wright, Associate Director at TCS, said: “The transformation of Town Centre House, alongside our new branding, reflects our commitment to pushing boundaries and delivering outstanding spaces that inspire productivity and creativity.
“This refurbishment is more than a physical upgrade – it’s a statement of our continued dedication to creating a vibrant, tenant-focused community in Leeds. We’re excited to roll this transformation out across the entire building as we continue to create spaces that foster innovation and collaboration.”
